Abstract

In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), meteorological drought leads to significant water scarcity and triggers profound social, economic, and environmental challenges. The main aim of this paper is to quantify spatiotemporal variability in drought using precipitation data from 28 meteorological stations (1985–2023) and produce future projections. Drought is expressed in terms of the amount of precipitations and a drought index known as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which is used globally for quantifying drought intensity. Theil-Sen technique showed that during 1985–2023 at eleven stations and during 2010–2023 at 19 stations either drought decreased or remained unchanged. When the amount of precipitation in 1985 and in 2010 was deducted from the amount of precipitation in 2023, the difference was positive, showing an increase in the amount of precipitation in 2023. Since 2010, 25 sites and since 1985, 21 sites demonstrated an increase in the amount of precipitations. Gassim, Taif and Madinah demonstrated the highest increase in the amount of precipitation. When SPI values were averaged over the 39 years period, 5 out of the last 8 years had positive SPI values, showing a reduction in drought throughout the KSA. In 2023 drought increased only at 2 sites, all the remaining 26 sites showed a reduction in drought. A multi-model mean of 4 CMIP6 models estimated more drought in the near future, which will turn wet at the end of this century. The study will help the decision makers to finetune their strategies and implement interventions for addressing drought issue in KSA.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-025-00570-w